The findings come at a time when the percentage of small businesses predicting growth this quarter has fallen to 33%. The new Novuna data quantifies the stresses that can be associated with running a small business, dealing with unexpected surprises and volatile market conditions. This annual poll on sleepless nights provides a measure of the real human impact for business owners - and the intensity of concerns that occupy their minds outside working hours.

Percentage of small business owners kept awake at night worrying about business issues

Q1 15	Q1 16	Q1 17	Q1 18	Q1 19	Q1 20	Q1 21	Q1 22	Q1 23	Q1 24	Q1 25
72%	70%	N/A	70%	76%	74%	80%	77%	79%	75%	82%

Sector findings

Coinciding with the launch of a new Novuna Business Finance report that reviews business outlook over time, the new Novuna research reveals significant sector findings, where the percentage of small business owners citing sleepless nights has risen sharply.  Manufacturing, agriculture, legal services and transport/distribution are the sectors where the prevalence of sleepless nights for business owners have risen sharply over the last 12-months.

The issues business owners are most likely to be worrying about in the early hours include: Uncertainty of market outlook (47%), the impact of rising National Insurance and the prospect of future tax and interest rate rises (40%), strategies to retain business (28%), managing cash flow (28%) and the burden of red tape (26%). Nationally, 15% of small business owners say they are still feeling the adverse impacts from the long tail of Brexit on their business, an issue that still keeps some awake at night.

Joanna Morris, Head of Insight at Novuna Business Finance Comments: "Worrying about growth is an everyday part of the working week for most small businesses - but when business owners are kept awake at night working through issues, we gain a sense on the intensity of some of these concerns for entrepreneurs. Further, our research suggests that sleepless nights are not just confined to businesses that are struggling to grow - in sectors such as manufacturing and transport/distribution. Our data also suggests that managing fast-paced or significant growth can also be stressful for established businesses.  Among those enterprises surveyed that predicted significant expansion this quarter, there was a significant rise in the percentage of business owners that said business worried kept them awake at night (84% up from 75% this time last year).

"Our tracking research of small business owners spanning 11 years tells us that their growth forecasts are, so often, heavily rooted in the prevailing economic context - and how this shapes confidence, stability and a sense of certainty.

"It is therefore perhaps unsurprising that, as 2025 started, the percentage of UK small business owners predicating growth had dipped to a nine-month low. Whilst the percentage of small businesses predicting growth for the three months ahead (to 31 March) had fallen back to 33% - the Q1 2025 data also indicates a four-year high in the percentage of small business saying they will scale down or contract (13%). In addition, the percentage of enterprises that fear closure has hit a two-year peak (8%). For those forecasting contraction, Q1 2025 is the first time in five quarters that the figure has exceeded single digits.

These findings are all from The Business Barometer study, which has tracked small business growth outlook every quarter since 2015. The latest data suggests a mood or caution offset by a deep resilience. Ever since Brexit and Covid, small businesses have responded to short-term challenges with resilience and by investing in new initiatives to power future growth. And already, we are seeing this for 2025.

"Beneath the headline figures and the national averages, the picture varies by industry sector. Next month we will be releasing a new specialist sector report, in which we will share a series of snapshots from five industry sectors over time. Every sector has its own story to tell and, together, they help us to understand why the small business community is so resilient: As one sector dips so another rises - and a challenge in one sector can be viewed as an opportunity elsewhere."

"At Novuna Business Finance, we are committed to supporting established small businesses across these sectors with simple and competitive funding and to help them focus on getting their funding structure right. To help small businesses fulfil their true potential we also need to stop and listen. The Business Barometer study has proven to be a helpful resource to given us a glimpse into the minds of small business owners - how they plan, how they grow and how their react to the world events and issues that shape their market, present challenges and allow for opportunities."

For further information visit Novuna Business Finance [1]