In recent months we have witnessed a period of unprecedented economic turbulence and instability. In this short article, I will describe some courses of action that may help to reduce the sense of helplessness businesses are currently experiencing.
1. Stay abreast of
economic indicators
The global credit crunch and the increased uncertainty affect
almost everyone. Very few UK
businesses are immune to the effects of reduced credit, devalued housing stock
and the greater perceived risk we all feel. Hence, it is important to stay
abreast of developments to ensure that management decisions are made in the
context of the most up-to-date economic indicators and forecasts.
2. Revisit your business
plan
It is perfectly acceptable to revise your business plan more
frequently than once a year. If your business plan is over six months old, then
it is likely that you will need to revise revenue figures downwards and costs
upwards. Do this as soon as you can, and revisit key indicators such as current
cash burn rates (cash spend per month, debtor days etc)
3. Review current
projects and plans
Most businesses have a number of projects and initiatives on
the go at any one time. These projects will consume resources over a number of
months and years, and will typically involve investment of time, people and
money. Projects that have been planned over six months ago, and that take a
number of months to complete, should be reappraised. It may be more appropriate
to defer projects until the economic conditions are more favourable or until
the level of perceived risk and uncertainty declines.
4. Communicate effectively
It is not just management that feels the pinch when economic
conditions deteriorate. It is likely some employees may be saddled with credit
card debt or may be sitting on properties with negative equity and worried
about their futures. Management needs to ensure their employees are aware of issues
with implications for them.
5. Consider
outsourcing some activities
In most industries, it is possible to outsource non-core
activities. There are many pros and cons for outsourcing; however, if cashflows
are under pressure, the inherent flexibility of outsourcing may be more
appropriate until economic conditions improve.
6. Assess exposure to
known risks and dependencies
In times of uncertainty it is important to step back and identify
risks and to appraise key relationships. Is the company over-reliant on one
particular company or industry? While this reliance may have been fine during periods
of economic growth, it is important to recognise that a dependency on one supplier
or customer dramatically increases the risk.
7. Consider different
scenarios
The importance of scenario planning grows when uncertainty
increases. The aim of scenario planning is to think through the implications
for the company if certain scenarios came into effect. For example, what would happen
if sales decline by 20% or if oil doubles in price in 2009? By thinking through
a number of plausible scenarios, and designing strategies to deal with such
eventualities, companies will be better prepared if one of the scenarios does,
in fact, occur.
8. Continue to innovate
While it
may be tempting to ‘tighten up', it
is important to recognise that increased uncertainty also brings opportunity.
If competitive brands reduce marketing spend, it may be an opportunity for you
to grow brand awareness. Similarly, as companies advertise less, rate cards
typically drop so it becomes cheaper to communicate with potential customers.
9. Don't assume cost-cutting
is a panacea
Another common reaction to a downturn is to reduce costs
through trimming wage bills by making employees redundant and cutting back on
marketing activities. While reducing these costs may have a short-term effect
on the profit and loss, such cuts are not without their risks. Redundancies
typically have a negative effect on the remaining employees, who now feel less
secure about their jobs, and are not happy with the extra burden placed on them
with a reduced headcount performing the same activities.
10. Keep an eye on
the cash
Given the ubiquitous impact of the credit crunch, it is
likely that the cash positions of some customers will have deteriorated. If a
majority of sales are on credit, it will be necessary to manage invoices and
accounts receivables (debtors) to ensure that your cash position does not
suffer also. Keep an eye to ensure your debtors'
days figure (the number of days on average it takes to get paid for a credit
sale) does not creep up.
The increased uncertainty in our environment means that planning for the future has become more difficult. However, it is how we deal with this extra risk that will determine how our businesses fare over the coming months and years. It is not a time for ‘battening down the hatches', but rather a time for more and better planning.
Alan Gleeson is managing director of Palo Alto Software, creator of Business Plan Pro® 11.0. For further information on business planning visit www.bplans.co.uk [1] and www.paloalto.co.uk [2]