Operational Research (OR) is a powerful yet often overlooked tool in business decision-making for devising solutions to complex problems in a wide range of industries.
Professor Jesse O'Hanley, Associate Dean of Research & Innovation at the University of Kent Business School and his colleague Professor of Operational Research, Kathy Kotiadis, recently discussed how OR has helped to solve major logistical challenges for the Port of Dover and Eurostar.
The University of Kent was awarded these projects through a Knowledge Transfer Partnership (KTPs), part-funded by the partnering organisations and Innovate UK, the UK's national innovation funding body.
Case study: Port of Dover
The challenge
The Port of Dover is one of the world's busiest ferry ports and managing the high volume of traffic passing through its Eastern Docks is its most significant challenge.
Three ferry companies (DFDS, P&O Ferries and Irish Ferries) make up to 65 round trips a day to the French ports of Calais and Dunkerque, carrying 2.2 million lorries (enough to circumnavigate the globe), 1.6 million cars, and 9 million people a year. The economic value of the goods managed through the Port is £144bn or around 33% of the UK's overall trade in goods with the EU, the UK's biggest and nearest trading partner. Freight traffic grew by 8% and tourist vehicle numbers by 26% respectively compared to 2022, showing that Dover remains the port of choice post-Brexit and Covid.
However, Dover's eastern docks ferry terminal is small, around half a square kilometre, and expansion is challenging since it is hemmed in by the sea, the White Cliffs of Dover, and Dover town.
Vehicles must navigate multiple checkpoints before boarding ferries, and any system disruption can cause severe traffic congestion, affecting the town of Dover and potentially necessitating the activation of Operation Brock.
The Solution
The Port of Dover collaborated with Professor O'Hanley and his team of operational researchers, including KTP Associate Cliff Preston, to model traffic flows and determine how the Port could manage future volumes of traffic based by identifying potential bottlenecks and evaluating a range of options and recommend future investments to alleviate problems.
A key challenge was managing the order and efficiency of several checkpoints for vehicles, including customs and checking-in. However, using simulation modelling, the team presented solutions to improve traffic flow.
The first model looked at the current operations. Using rich data collected by the Port, including excellent historical data on ferry schedules, vehicle/passenger carryings, and arrival rates for different traffic types, they were able to model the operations, which provided several insights.
Firstly, it highlighted the Port's physical infrastructure can handle current traffic volumes well and that excess queues are typically caused by technical issues (e.g., IT problems or staff shortages), not capacity limits.
Secondly, having a buffer zone is crucial for managing different traffic types and ferry operators and enhancing resilience against system problems. This contrasts with the assembly area, an area where vehicles wait after check-in but before embarkation onto ferries, which cannot mitigate issues at border controls or check-ins.
The next step was to consider future traffic volumes through three forecast scenarios: expected, optimistic, and pessimistic. This modelling pinpointed future pinch-points and identified the optimal use of two areas for operational space.
The key performance measure was 'TAPs per year'- the frequency the Port's capacity is exceeded, impacting the Port, its customers, and the local community. Triggering of the Dover Traffic Access Protocol (TAP) is designed to alleviate traffic congestion in front of the town's seafront by allowing freight vehicles (and only freight) to be held on the A20 approach using a traffic light system.
The Impact
The project delivered several positive impacts. It saved the Port time, money and resources, and facilitated dialogue with government agencies. It also highlighted simple principles to be applied in future circumstances.
One is the value of flexibility. Given the variability in traffic flows (transient over a day, week, or season) no one fixed configuration of the Port's hard infrastructure could be optimal all the time. Any investments that increase flexibility, such as using temporary or relocatable structures, is especially useful.
Conversely, investments which reduce flexibility may not adapt well to changing traffic patterns and demands, potentially leading to inefficiencies and increased congestion.
Modelling has also enabled the Port to evaluate plans more effectively, distinguishing between its ‘anatomy' (physical infrastructure) and its ‘physiology' (operational processes). More specifically, it is preferable, where feasible, to adapt performance by changing behaviours through incentives, nudges, and other methods, rather than relying solely on alterations to the physical infrastructure.
Finally, as Professor O'Hanley noted, the project highlights the importance of OR modelling to support future planning. The Port is a dynamic system influenced by external factors (e.g. road conditions, weather, economics, and socio-political events) and it relies on highly skilled and experienced staff to manage the system. Forecasting and analytics plays a significant role in supporting real-time, evidence-based decision-making of Port staff.
Professor O'Hanley and his team worked on subsequent OR projects for the Port of Dover, including solving a central warehouse issue where the Port was going to invest in an expensive system to organise cargo. OR modelling enabled the team to put forward a simple solution - making the loading bay a few metres longer so forklifts could be used to move cargo around. This helped the Port avoid a major cost investment and again demonstrates how OR can bring value to a business.
Improving the customer experience at Eurostar
The team at Kent Business school has also worked on a project for Eurostar.
The Challenge
Since Eurostar started operating in 1994, its success has brought its own set of challenges. As an international service, passengers are required to pass through security screening and border controls before boarding trains. These checks can become a bottleneck for passengers, occasionally resulting in long queues. Terminal throughput, in turn, has constrained the number of services that can be operated and the number of tickets that can be sold. Also, scheduling of rolling stock to carry upwards of eleven million passengers per year is no easy task. Travelling at 300km per hour back and forth to Europe each day invariably causes wear and tear on trains, which necessitates that they undergo regular maintenance.
Operating across several countries and sharing infrastructure with multiple other operators while managing planned and unforeseen maintenance and coping with daily events that cause disruption to the schedule, Eurostar has the complex challenge of ensuring trains are in the stations and ready to depart on time. This requires extensive and holistic forward planning on Eurostar's part and the design of flexible operating procedures that can adapt to ever-changing conditions.
The Solution
Working under another KTP partnership, Professor O'Hanley, Professor Kotiadis, and KTP Associate Will Jones were tasked with adding new simulation and analytics capabilities to Eurostar's planning framework to help tackle key strategic and operational business challenges. As well as a model to run and assess different scenarios, they undertook a simulation modelling study that provided other ancillary benefits.
Working with key stakeholders to develop a model required the group to agree and articulate their understanding of the impact of certain actions on the system. This logic can then be tested in the simulation and perceived wisdom challenged, leading to revised understanding.
In addition, the process requires a thorough exploration of available data. This can highlight gaps that need addressing by new data collection programmes and form the basis for improved monitoring of an organisation's performance.
The Impact
For Eurostar, the simulation study has provided a sound and objective evidence base for decision making in situations where the best choice is not obvious. Professor O'Hanley added as Eurostar continues to grow, simulation and other analytic techniques will play a key role in ensuring decisions are based on the best available information. This will help ensure the smooth flow of passengers through stations, confident that they will cross the channel as scheduled, and ensuring the Eurostar brand remains strong as the enthusiasm for fast, efficient, low carbon travel continues.
These projects highlight how OR can deliver invaluable insights and solutions for businesses, particularly in logistics and transport. Through OR, businesses can improve their operations, manage resources more effectively, and make informed decisions that enhance overall efficiency, performance and the customer experience.
