Forecasters were looking at a higher inflation rate for January than the December 4%, which remains unchanged and is the closest we have to good news. However, the economic optimists were hoping to see a 3 on the inflation big figure, possibly a 3.9% or even a 3.8%, that may have unlocked the Bank of England key to lower interest rates and now looks unlikely - the bad news!

Consumers responsible for buying the weekly shop might be surprised to be advised that food prices have fallen, while supermarkets play weights and measures with produce and pricing to produce a price cut illusion in many  popular product lines when you have just paid the same for less. Consumers maybe not so surprised to find energy prices going in the opposite direction, price cap and war related .

With the war in Gaza and the Russian/Ukraine conflict both impacting global trade, inflation will remain fragile and the badly needed lowering of interest rates will be on hold until inflation breaches the 4% level. This might need a 0,25% reduction or more, to release the B of E interest rate purse strings and trigger a succession of ¼% interest rate cuts, easing the pressure on both mortgage holders and small businesses, where the currently insolvency rate is worryingly high.